Anticipating the Future. How to Predict Technological Development?
On the one hand, predicting the future in various fields from business to medicine, from sports to climate is a popular topic. On the other hand, it is a difficult task and the demand for the solution is constantly growing with the extension of horizon of strategic planning.
But what about technological forecasting?
Disruptive technologies provide an opportunity to form new competitive platforms. They have the ability to open up new markets and make significant changes in the status of technological competition between companies and corporations.
Early identification of "breakthrough zones" and areas of application of DT will allow timely adjustments to technological development strategies and minimize the risks of "leaving the market" at the level of entire industries.
To increase the predictive power of multiple estimates, in addition to traditional foresight research, promising new tools have been developed and launched in recent years, based on big data analysis.
At the same time some developers combine the approaches of text mining and expert assessments to avoid the drawbacks inherent in analytical systems that use only scientific articles and patents to study trends in the development of new technologies.
Will the new approaches provide a real increase in the reliability of forecasts of technological development, or will the risks of their use remain high?
Why technological forecasts often fail and what are the tools for their verification?
Let's try to answer to these questions together with experts, as well as discuss how the choice of methodology and tools for technological forecasting is taking place today. What results business and government can expect?